Stratfor: Iranian elections

June 27, 2009 · Posted in Blogroll, Uncategorized

Stratfor has two extremely interesting articles on the events surrounding the recent Iranian elections. Their core argument is that Ahmadinejad easily won (with or without fraud) and that the West has greatly misperceived the demonstrations that have been seizing Tehran since:

Perhaps the greatest factor in Ahmadinejad’s favor is that Mousavi spoke for the better districts of Tehran — something akin to running a U.S. presidential election as a spokesman for Georgetown and the Upper East Side. Such a base will get you hammered, and Mousavi got hammered. Fraud or not, Ahmadinejad won and he won significantly. That he won is not the mystery; the mystery is why others thought he wouldn’t win.

[…]

Later, when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke Friday and called out the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they failed to understand that the troops — definitely not drawn from what we might call the “Twittering classes,” would remain loyal to the regime for ideological and social reasons. The troops had about as much sympathy for the demonstrators as a small-town boy from Alabama might have for a Harvard postdoc. Failing to understand the social tensions in Iran, the reporters deluded themselves into thinking they were witnessing a general uprising. But this was not St. Petersburg in 1917 or Bucharest in 1989 — it was Tiananmen Square.

Regardless of one’s agreement with the core points, both articles merit a careful read.

Tags: Iran

Comments

2 Responses to “Stratfor: Iranian elections”

Bundy on June 27th, 2009 11:10 am

Ahmadinejad inspires this kind of thing on himself with hateful ignorant low brow rhetoric that does nothing for the cause of Iran or the many different constituencies he serves.

I think the attention has rightfully shifted to why 20 something year old girl’s are being gunned down if the regime has nothing to fear. Their actions don’t exactly make you think these young people are regarded as a whacko fringe group but rather and influential one that needs to be made an example out of.

Anyways…probably off everybody’s radar with the passing of MJ.
SlamEagleF15K on July 5th, 2009 10:48 am

The Iran girl was only barely younger than myself and gave me the pain of if I could have don`t that if I was in her state..Iran has been suppressed for a long time and it`s about the right time things should change but still the sword proves itself over the minds of the people.That`s reality I guess.