Stratfor: Iranian elections

June 27, 2009 · Posted in Blogroll, Uncategorized · 2 Comments 

iranStratfor has two extremely interesting articles on the events surrounding the recent Iranian elections. Their core argument is that Ahmadinejad easily won (with or without fraud) and that the West has greatly misperceived the demonstrations that have been seizing Tehran since:

Perhaps the greatest factor in Ahmadinejad’s favor is that Mousavi spoke for the better districts of Tehran — something akin to running a U.S. presidential election as a spokesman for Georgetown and the Upper East Side. Such a base will get you hammered, and Mousavi got hammered. Fraud or not, Ahmadinejad won and he won significantly. That he won is not the mystery; the mystery is why others thought he wouldn’t win.

[…]

Later, when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke Friday and called out the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, they failed to understand that the troops — definitely not drawn from what we might call the “Twittering classes,” would remain loyal to the regime for ideological and social reasons. The troops had about as much sympathy for the demonstrators as a small-town boy from Alabama might have for a Harvard postdoc. Failing to understand the social tensions in Iran, the reporters deluded themselves into thinking they were witnessing a general uprising. But this was not St. Petersburg in 1917 or Bucharest in 1989 — it was Tiananmen Square.

Regardless of one’s agreement with the core points, both articles merit a careful read.

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UCAVs gain ground in the USN

June 26, 2009 · Posted in Blogroll, Uncategorized · 7 Comments 

61d04ed8-95f3-4252-a3e5-6f14f3104adb.LargeBill Sweetman reports that UCAVs as a concept, and NG’s X-47B in particular, are getting increasingly popular with the USN’s aviation community:

The Navy is looking at longer ranges, driven by the threat from anti-ship ballistic missiles and other weapons. "Navy aviation is run by a whole generation of Hornet people and their vista is 450 nm, and they assume that the Tomahawks will take care of the IADS [integrated air defense system]. But if the Tomahawk ships can’t get in there…"

Beard showed some new Northrop Grumman comparisons that pit the UCAV against a notional future Navy fighter (resembling a super-F-35 with a greater range). The big difference at long range is that the manned fighter can only run into the target once after hitting the tanker, because of human endurance limits. The UCAV is good for 50 hours endurance and can make four-to-six trips into the target before flying back to the carrier. 

Nice to see that Kurt Plummer’s long-standing arguments in favor of UACVs are finally being recognized :) 

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Yuri Dolgorukiy begins sea trials

June 25, 2009 · Posted in Blogroll, Uncategorized · Comment 

Pavel Podvig reports that the Yuri Dolgorukiy, the first vessel of the new Borey class SSBNs, has begun sea trials.

The real prize in this case is the first public photo of the submarine at sea (click to enlarge):

YD20090619_2

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NASIC report: Ballistic & cruise missile threat to US

June 24, 2009 · Posted in Blogroll, Uncategorized · Comment 

nasic09 The FAS Strategic Blog comments on a new report released by NASIC regarding the threat of ballistic & cruise missiles to US forces:

The latest update continues the previous user-friendly format and describes a number of important assessments and new developments in ballistic and cruise missiles of many of the world’s major military powers.

The report also helps dispel many web-rumors that have circulated about Chinese, Russian, Indian and Pakistani nuclear forces.

The entire report is available here.

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Designing the next supercarrier

June 22, 2009 · Posted in Blogroll, Uncategorized · Comment 

supercarrier-470-0709Popular Mechanics has a very interesting article about the new design techniques applied to the next USN aircraft carrier:

on a complex project of this scale, there is little margin to correct design mistakes. If not found and fixed, one small flaw can have ramifications that cost tens of millions of dollars, months of hot-metal work or even the life of a sailor not yet born. “These ships are like entire planned cities,” says Eric Wertheim, editor of The Naval Institute Guide to Combat Fleets of the World. “It’s like building Disney World.” 

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